Category Archives: Housing
A Strong Start for Housing
2019 was a solid year for U.S. housing. While still subject to modest revisions, government figures show that new residential sales increased 10.4% from an estimated 617,000 units in 2018 to 681,000 units in 2019. Single-family housing starts advanced 1.4% … Continue reading
Homebuilder Stocks Fall as Optimism About Global Economic Growth Rises
Homebuilding stocks have been the best performing of the 150-odd sectors in the Dow Jones U.S. Total Market Index, up 44.4% over the past 12 months as of November 8. Last year, they declined sharply in the face of Federal … Continue reading
A Solid First Half for Housing and the Builders
A typical analysis from policy makers, like the Federal Reserve, points out that activity in the housing market has declined so far this year; but that assertion focuses primarily on housing starts. A more complete picture from the national data … Continue reading
A Solid 2019 First Quarter for New Home Sales
As anticipated, the market for new single-family houses rebounded from a steep 2018 fourth quarter slide to post modest gains in the 2019 first quarter against fairly strong 2018 first quarter levels. The primary driver of the housing rebound has … Continue reading
Impairments Spark a Sell-Off, But Position BZH for an Earnings Rebound
Beazer Homes (BZH) reported a fiscal 2019 second quarter loss of $3.28 per share, compared with earnings of $0.36 per share in the comparable prior year quarter. The loss included a large impairment charge and a much smaller gain on … Continue reading
Meritage Homes (MTH) 18Q1 Results
Meritage reported 18Q1 diluted EPS of $0.65 per share, down from $1.07 last year, but a penny ahead of consensus estimates. Home closing revenue declined 4% to $698.7 million, as a 2% increase in unit closings was more than offset … Continue reading
PulteGroup (PHM) 18Q1 Results
PulteGroup reported first quarter earnings of $166.8 million or $0.59 per share, even with a year ago, but still well ahead of the consensus estimate. Revenues were just short of $2.0 billion, up 1.4% from the prior year. Unit closings … Continue reading
Housing Market Update – February 2019
The outlook for housing (or more precisely, sentiment about the outlook for housing) has improved in recent weeks, primarily because of the decline in mortgage rates. The average rate on the 30-year mortgage has fallen by 57 basis points (bp) … Continue reading
The Pause that Refreshes the Homebuilders?
It has certainly been a rough year for homebuilding stocks, but not nearly so bad for the housing market. The Lark Research Homebuilder Stock Price Index, an equal weighted average of eleven publicly-traded homebuilder stocks, was down 29.2% year-to-date through December 7. By comparison, the S&P 500 has declined 1.5% and the Russell 2000 has declined 5.7%. Continue reading
A Process of Adjustment for the Homebuilders
2018 has been rough for homebuilding stocks. The Lark Research Homebuilder Stock Index, which is an equal-weighted measure of the price performance of ten publicly-traded homebuilders, was down 19.9% year-to-date through August 3rd, far worse than the gains of 6.2% … Continue reading