Category Archives: Housing

November Housing Market Update

Housing market data from the U.S. Commerce Dept. and others show sales and production falling at a rapid rate.  The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of single-family housing starts and building permits has fallen for eight consecutive months by about … Continue reading

Posted in Consumer Discretionary, Housing, KBH, TOL | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

September Housing Market Update

The average rate on the 30-year mortgage has risen above 6.00% in response to the latest hike in the Fed Funds target rate.  Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey pegged the average rate at 6.29% this week. The CME’s Fed … Continue reading

Posted in BZH, Consumer Discretionary, Housing, KBH, Market Commentary, Real Estate, TOL | Tagged , | Comments Off on September Housing Market Update

Toll Brothers (TOL) 22Q3 Update

Toll Brothers’ 22Q3 EPS was $2.35, up 25.7% from 21Q3’s $1.87 and above my estimate of $2.22.  Revenues increased 10.6% to $2.49 billion, slightly below my projections.  Deliveries of 2,414 units fell 7.1%, more than expected, but the average sales … Continue reading

Posted in Consumer Discretionary, Housing, TOL | Tagged | Comments Off on Toll Brothers (TOL) 22Q3 Update

22Q2 Housing Market Update

Despite an accelerating slide in housing sales and production following this year’s rise in mortgage rates, my homebuilder stock price index has performed in line with its benchmarks since April. At current prices, homebuilding stocks trade at less than four … Continue reading

Posted in Consumer Discretionary, Housing, KBH, Market Commentary, TOL | Tagged , | Comments Off on 22Q2 Housing Market Update

Thoughts on the Outlook for Homebuilding Stocks

Homebuilding stocks have had a rough 2022. Year-to-date (through 4/12), my equal-weighted index of 11 publicly-traded U.S. homebuilders has fallen 34.8%. That compares with declines of 7.7% in the S&P 500 and 11.5% in the Russell 2000. Following a three-fold … Continue reading

Posted in BZH, Consumer Discretionary, Housing, KBH, TOL | Tagged , | Comments Off on Thoughts on the Outlook for Homebuilding Stocks

Toll Brothers (TOL) 22Q1 Update

Since my last report on December 9, 2021, Toll’s stock has fallen 26.3%, much more than the S&P Mid-Cap 400’s 2.6% decline.  As I noted back then, shares of Toll and other homebuilders were ripe for a correction following their … Continue reading

Posted in Consumer Discretionary, Housing, TOL | Tagged | Comments Off on Toll Brothers (TOL) 22Q1 Update

Toll Brothers (TOL) 21Q4 Update

Toll Brothers reported stronger-than anticipated fiscal 21Q4 results that once again exceeded my and the consensus estimates.  Its diluted earnings per share were $3.02, up 95% from $1.55 in 20Q4.  My estimate was $2.51 and the consensus estimate was $2.50.

Posted in Consumer Discretionary, Housing, Real Estate | Tagged | Comments Off on Toll Brothers (TOL) 21Q4 Update

21Q3 Housing Market Update

The housing market has been quite strong since shortly after the onset of the pandemic, fueled by low interest rates, pent-up demand and a strong desire among urban apartment dwellers to escape the coronavirus.  New home sales from May 2020 … Continue reading

Posted in Housing, Real Estate | Tagged , , , | Comments Off on 21Q3 Housing Market Update

Toll Brothers 21Q3 Update

Toll Brothers reported stronger-than anticipated fiscal 21Q3 results that once again exceeded my estimates.  Its diluted earnings per share were $1.86, up 71% from $0.59 in 20Q2.  My estimate was $1.48 and the consensus estimate was $1.53.

Posted in Consumer Discretionary, Housing | Tagged | Comments Off on Toll Brothers 21Q3 Update

2021 Market Outlook – Part 2: S&P 500 Sector Analysis

2020 was of course dominated by the impact of the pandemic on the economy and specifically on the revenues and profits of each of the S&P 500 constituents.  There was a sharp stock market sell-off in March-April, followed by a … Continue reading

Posted in Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Energy, Financials, Health Care, Housing, Industrials, Market Commentary, Materials, Real Estate, Sectors, Technology, Telecommunications, Utilities | Tagged | Comments Off on 2021 Market Outlook – Part 2: S&P 500 Sector Analysis

An Uncertain Outlook for Housing

2020 was a surprisingly solid year for housing in light of the pandemic and the havoc that it wreaked in other parts of the economy.  December data will not be reported until later this month.  I project that single-family housing … Continue reading

Posted in Consumer Discretionary, Housing | Tagged , , , | Comments Off on An Uncertain Outlook for Housing

Housing Market Update

Despite continuing elevated unemployment and dampened consumer confidence, the housing market has been surprisingly strong in the months following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.  According to the U.S. Commerce Dept., single-family housing starts for August were estimated at the … Continue reading

Posted in Consumer Discretionary, Housing | Tagged , | Comments Off on Housing Market Update

After the Quick Rebound, Investors Should Approach Homebuilding Stocks with Caution

Homebuilding stocks have been on a wild ride in 2020.  They boomed from the start of the year, rising 19.1% (according to my index of 11 publicly-traded builders) to February 21, handily beating the 3.0% gain on the S&P 500 … Continue reading

Posted in Consumer Discretionary, Housing, Real Estate | Tagged | Comments Off on After the Quick Rebound, Investors Should Approach Homebuilding Stocks with Caution

A Strong Start for Housing

2019 was a solid year for U.S. housing.  While still subject to modest revisions, government figures show that new residential sales increased 10.4% from an estimated 617,000 units in 2018 to 681,000 units in 2019.  Single-family housing starts advanced 1.4% … Continue reading

Posted in Consumer Discretionary, Housing | Tagged , | Comments Off on A Strong Start for Housing

Homebuilder Stocks Fall as Optimism About Global Economic Growth Rises

Homebuilding stocks have been the best performing of the 150-odd sectors in the Dow Jones U.S. Total Market Index, up 44.4% over the past 12 months as of November 8. Last year, they declined sharply in the face of Federal … Continue reading

Posted in Consumer Discretionary, Housing, Real Estate | Tagged , , | Comments Off on Homebuilder Stocks Fall as Optimism About Global Economic Growth Rises

A Solid First Half for Housing and the Builders

A typical analysis from policy makers, like the Federal Reserve, points out that activity in the housing market has declined so far this year; but that assertion focuses primarily on housing starts.   A more complete picture from the national data … Continue reading

Posted in Consumer Discretionary, Housing, Real Estate, Uncategorized | Tagged , | Comments Off on A Solid First Half for Housing and the Builders

A Solid 2019 First Quarter for New Home Sales

As anticipated, the market for new single-family houses rebounded from a steep 2018 fourth quarter slide to post modest gains in the 2019 first quarter against fairly strong 2018 first quarter levels.  The primary driver of the housing rebound has … Continue reading

Posted in Housing | Comments Off on A Solid 2019 First Quarter for New Home Sales

Impairments Spark a Sell-Off, But Position BZH for an Earnings Rebound

Beazer Homes (BZH) reported a fiscal 2019 second quarter loss of $3.28 per share, compared with earnings of $0.36 per share in the comparable prior year quarter.  The loss included a large impairment charge and a much smaller gain on … Continue reading

Posted in BZH, Consumer Discretionary, Housing | Tagged | Comments Off on Impairments Spark a Sell-Off, But Position BZH for an Earnings Rebound

Meritage Homes (MTH) 18Q1 Results

Meritage reported 18Q1 diluted EPS of $0.65 per share, down from $1.07 last year, but a penny ahead of consensus estimates.  Home closing revenue declined 4% to $698.7 million, as a 2% increase in unit closings was more than offset … Continue reading

Posted in Consumer Discretionary, Housing | Tagged , | Comments Off on Meritage Homes (MTH) 18Q1 Results

PulteGroup (PHM) 18Q1 Results

PulteGroup reported first quarter earnings of $166.8 million or $0.59 per share, even with a year ago, but still well ahead of the consensus estimate.  Revenues were just short of $2.0 billion, up 1.4% from the prior year.  Unit closings … Continue reading

Posted in Consumer Discretionary, Housing, Real Estate | Tagged | Comments Off on PulteGroup (PHM) 18Q1 Results

Housing Market Update – February 2019

The outlook for housing (or more precisely, sentiment about the outlook for housing) has improved in recent weeks, primarily because of the decline in mortgage rates.  The average rate on the 30-year mortgage has fallen by 57 basis points (bp) … Continue reading

Posted in Consumer Discretionary, Housing, Market Commentary, Real Estate | Tagged , | Comments Off on Housing Market Update – February 2019

The Pause that Refreshes the Homebuilders?

It has certainly been a rough year for homebuilding stocks, but not nearly so bad for the housing market. The Lark Research Homebuilder Stock Price Index, an equal weighted average of eleven publicly-traded homebuilder stocks, was down 29.2% year-to-date through December 7. By comparison, the S&P 500 has declined 1.5% and the Russell 2000 has declined 5.7%. Continue reading

Posted in Housing, Real Estate | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

A Process of Adjustment for the Homebuilders

2018 has been rough for homebuilding stocks.  The Lark Research Homebuilder Stock Index, which is an equal-weighted measure of the price performance of ten publicly-traded homebuilders, was down 19.9% year-to-date through August 3rd, far worse than the gains of 6.2% … Continue reading

Posted in Consumer Discretionary, Housing | Tagged | Comments Off on A Process of Adjustment for the Homebuilders

18Q1 Housing Update

The rate of growth in housing production decelerated modestly in 18Q1, but growth in new home sales remained solid. In 18Q1 conference calls, builders said that the housing market remains strong, with gains in jobs and wages and limited inventories … Continue reading

Posted in Housing | Tagged | Comments Off on 18Q1 Housing Update

A Possible Early Sign of a Market Rebound

Last week, stocks fell sharply. The S&P 500 ended the week down 5.16% in price. The Lark Research Homebuilder Stock Price Index fell 6.02%, underperforming the broader market.

Posted in Housing, Market Commentary | Tagged , | Comments Off on A Possible Early Sign of a Market Rebound

Housing Market Outlook

Housing has been a consistent bright spot in an otherwise mediocre recovery. Critics complain that the recovery in housing has been lukewarm, because production levels are still well below levels seen in the years before the housing bust. Yet, housing … Continue reading

Posted in Housing | Comments Off on Housing Market Outlook

2017 Housing Market Outlook

Housing market activity has strengthened in recent months.  This has raised the hope of another leg up in the recovery.  Yet, investors are still skeptical about the industry’s future prospects.

Posted in Consumer Discretionary, Housing | Tagged , | Comments Off on 2017 Housing Market Outlook

KBH Looks to Extend Gains in 2017

KB Home (KBH) was the sixth largest builder in the U.S. in 2016, according to Builder Magazine.  The company operates in four regions, nine states and 39 metropolitan markets.  It generates most of its sales in California, with operations in … Continue reading

Posted in Consumer Discretionary, Housing, KBH | Tagged , , | Comments Off on KBH Looks to Extend Gains in 2017

Sentiment on Homebuilding Stocks Turns Negative Suddenly

Homebuilding stocks have been crushed since the beginning of the year and especially over the past few weeks. The Lark Research Homebuilder Stock Price Index, (an equal-weighted price-only weekly index of the share prices of 12 publicly-traded homebuilders, rebalanced at … Continue reading

Posted in Housing | Tagged , | Comments Off on Sentiment on Homebuilding Stocks Turns Negative Suddenly

Stocks Take A Tumble Again

Stocks got off to a terrible start in its first week of 2016 – the worst start to a year ever, according to Barron’s.  The S&P 500 closed the week down 6%.  Most major averages posted similar declines.  The S&P … Continue reading

Posted in Housing, Market Commentary | Tagged , , | Comments Off on Stocks Take A Tumble Again