Category Archives: Housing

2021 Market Outlook – Part 2: S&P 500 Sector Analysis

2020 was of course dominated by the impact of the pandemic on the economy and specifically on the revenues and profits of each of the S&P 500 constituents.  There was a sharp stock market sell-off in March-April, followed by a … Continue reading

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An Uncertain Outlook for Housing

2020 was a surprisingly solid year for housing in light of the pandemic and the havoc that it wreaked in other parts of the economy.  December data will not be reported until later this month.  I project that single-family housing … Continue reading

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Housing Market Update

Despite continuing elevated unemployment and dampened consumer confidence, the housing market has been surprisingly strong in the months following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.  According to the U.S. Commerce Dept., single-family housing starts for August were estimated at the … Continue reading

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After the Quick Rebound, Investors Should Approach Homebuilding Stocks with Caution

Homebuilding stocks have been on a wild ride in 2020.  They boomed from the start of the year, rising 19.1% (according to my index of 11 publicly-traded builders) to February 21, handily beating the 3.0% gain on the S&P 500 … Continue reading

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A Strong Start for Housing

2019 was a solid year for U.S. housing.  While still subject to modest revisions, government figures show that new residential sales increased 10.4% from an estimated 617,000 units in 2018 to 681,000 units in 2019.  Single-family housing starts advanced 1.4% … Continue reading

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Homebuilder Stocks Fall as Optimism About Global Economic Growth Rises

Homebuilding stocks have been the best performing of the 150-odd sectors in the Dow Jones U.S. Total Market Index, up 44.4% over the past 12 months as of November 8. Last year, they declined sharply in the face of Federal … Continue reading

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A Solid First Half for Housing and the Builders

A typical analysis from policy makers, like the Federal Reserve, points out that activity in the housing market has declined so far this year; but that assertion focuses primarily on housing starts.   A more complete picture from the national data … Continue reading

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A Solid 2019 First Quarter for New Home Sales

As anticipated, the market for new single-family houses rebounded from a steep 2018 fourth quarter slide to post modest gains in the 2019 first quarter against fairly strong 2018 first quarter levels.  The primary driver of the housing rebound has … Continue reading

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Impairments Spark a Sell-Off, But Position BZH for an Earnings Rebound

Beazer Homes (BZH) reported a fiscal 2019 second quarter loss of $3.28 per share, compared with earnings of $0.36 per share in the comparable prior year quarter.  The loss included a large impairment charge and a much smaller gain on … Continue reading

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Meritage Homes (MTH) 18Q1 Results

Meritage reported 18Q1 diluted EPS of $0.65 per share, down from $1.07 last year, but a penny ahead of consensus estimates.  Home closing revenue declined 4% to $698.7 million, as a 2% increase in unit closings was more than offset … Continue reading

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