Category Archives: Health Care

Citius Pharmaceuticals (CTXR) 22Q3 Update

Citius Pharmaceuticals reported a third quarter loss of $8.9 million or $0.06 per share, compared with last year’s loss of $7.3 million or $0.05 per share.  As an early stage drug development company, Citius currently generates no revenues.  The loss … Continue reading

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AlerisLife (ALR) 22Q2 Update

AlerisLife reported a 22Q2 net loss of $8.8 million or $0.28 per share, better than the 22Q1 loss of $9.7 million or $0.31 per share and the 21Q2 loss of $12.3 million or $0.39 per share.  I had estimated a … Continue reading

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Organon & Co (OGN) 22Q2 Update

22Q2 revenues of $1.585 billion were flat year-over-year, but up 5% at constant currency.  GAAP EPS of $0.92, was below 21Q2’s $1.68 and also below my $1.11 estimate.  Non-GAAP EPS of $1.25 was below last year’s $1.72 and also below … Continue reading

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Merck & Co (MRK) 22Q2 Update

22Q2 sales increased 28% to $14.6 billion, with LAGEVRIO sales of $1.2 billion, a 26% increase in KEYTRUDA sales to $5.3 billion and a 36% increase in GARDASIL/GARDASIL 9 sales to $1.7 billion.  GAAP diluted EPS from continuing operations increased … Continue reading

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Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) 22Q2 Update

22Q2 revenues were higher, GAAP earnings lower and non-GAAP earnings higher than anticipated.  Management reduced its 2022 revenue guidance by $1 million to $46 billion due to foreign currency headwinds.  It also lowered its GAAP EPS guidance, but left its … Continue reading

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Citius Announces Its Intention to Spin-Off I/ONTAK

Earlier today, Citius Pharmaceuticals issued a press release announcing its intention to spin-off its late stage oncology candidate, I/ONTAK, to a new, standalone publicly-traded company. In making the announcement, the company said that it believed that the market has not … Continue reading

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AlerisLife (ALR) 22Q1 Update

22Q1 Loss of $0.30 in Line with Expectations; Katie Potter Steps Down as CEO; ALR Hires Alvarez & Marsal to Conduct a Comprehensive Operational Review AlerisLife reported a 22Q1 net loss of $9.7 million or $0.31 per diluted share, slightly … Continue reading

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Citius Pharma 22Q1 Update

Citius Pharmaceuticals (CXTR) is a specialty pharmaceutical company focused on the development of five potential products: (1) Mino-Lok, an antibiotic lock solution to treat and salvage infected central venous catheters (CVCs) in patients with catheter-related bloodstream infections (CRBSIs); (2) I/ONTAK, … Continue reading

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AlerisLife (ALR) 21Q4 Update

Lowering Estimates and Safety Rating, Withdrawing Performance Rating and Price Target AlerisLife Inc. (ALR), formerly known as Five Star Senior Living, reported a fourth quarter net loss of $10.7 million or $0.34 per share, slightly worse than the third quarter’s … Continue reading

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Merck & Co. (MRK) Update

Establishing 2022 and 2023 Estimates, Maintaining Outperform Rating, Setting $85 Price Target Following the spin-off of Organon, Merck is focused on growing its pharmaceuticals business to offset the looming loss of exclusivity on its $5 billion Januvia/Janumet franchise and others … Continue reading

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Bristol-Myers Squibb Update

Raising 2022 Estimate and Adding 2023, Maintaining Outperform Rating and Price Target of $73 Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMS) achieved many operational milestones in 2021, advancing its development pipeline through clinical trials, new drug applications and regulatory approvals.  At its November … Continue reading

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Organon 21Q3 Update

Organon reported 21Q3 GAAP EPS of $1.38 which exceeded my estimate of $1.31.  Revenues were in line with my estimates and operating costs were lower, except for a $25 million increase associated with the acquisition of in-process research & development.

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Five Star Senior Living 21Q3 Update

Again Lowering EPS Estimates; Reducing 6-12 Month PT and Maintaining Outperform Rating Five Star reported a third quarter net loss of $10.2 million or $0.32 per share, less than the second quarter’s loss of $12.3 million or $0.39 per share.  … Continue reading

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Organon (OGN) 21Q2 Update

21Q2 Performance in Line with Expectations; Raising Performance Rating and Lowering Price Target 21Q2 GAAP EPS of $1.68 was lower than 20Q2’s $2.14.  Although sales increased 4.5% to $1.6 billion, costs were higher as a result of new tolling arrangements … Continue reading

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Five Star Senior Living 21Q2 Update

Five Star reported a second quarter net loss of $12.3 million, reversing last year’s $3.0 million net profit.  On a per share basis, the loss was $0.39, compared to net income of $0.10 and below my estimate of a loss … Continue reading

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Bristol-Myers Squibb: Initiating Coverage

Initiating Coverage with an Outperform Rating. Prospects Beyond 2022 are Favorable. With the acquisitions of Celgene in 2019 and MyoKardia in 2020, BMS has substantially transformed its business and repositioned for growth.  Drugs added to the portfolio from the two … Continue reading

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Five Star Alters Strategy, Its Stock Gets Slammed

In early April, Five Star announced a change in its strategy whereby it will transition out of the management of 108 smaller senior living communities (SLCs) with 7,500 living units (with an average of 69.4 units per community), close and … Continue reading

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Assessing the Impact of the Organon Spin-Off on Merck

Merck is progressing toward the spin-off of its subsidiary, Organon & Co., which is expected to be completed by the end of the June.  Organon will include Merck’s women’s health products, biosimilars and certain established brands, most of which have … Continue reading

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Five Star and DHC Restructure Their Agreement

On April 9, Five Star and DHC announced a restructuring of their management agreement whereby DHC will transition the management of 108 smaller senior living communities (SLCs) with a total of 7,500 units to other operators by the end of … Continue reading

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Merck Spin-Off of Organon Targeted for 21Q2

In recent weeks, Merck has been following through on its plan to spin-off its subsidiary, Organon & Co., to shareholders.  On March 17, it filed its Form 10 registration statement related to the transaction.  On March 24, it posted on … Continue reading

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Citius Pharma Raises $71 million in Equity Unit Offering

Citius Pharmaceuticals (CXTR) is a specialty pharmaceutical company focused on the development of four potential products: (1) Mino-Lok, an antibiotic lock solution to treat and salvage infected central venous catheters (“CVCs”) in patients with catheter-related bloodstream infections (“CRBSIs”); Halo-Lido, a … Continue reading

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Five Star Senior Living (FVE) Update

Vaccination of 90% of Residents Raises Visibility on a Rebound in Occupancy Five Star reported slightly stronger 20Q4 results than anticipated, due primarily to gains on investments held by its captive insurer.  Average occupancy across its owned and leased senior … Continue reading

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2021 Market Outlook – Part 2: S&P 500 Sector Analysis

2020 was of course dominated by the impact of the pandemic on the economy and specifically on the revenues and profits of each of the S&P 500 constituents.  There was a sharp stock market sell-off in March-April, followed by a … Continue reading

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Five Star’s Strong Stock Performance Could Signal Quicker Turnaround

Five Star Senior Living continues to cope with the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on its operations.  During the 2020 second quarter, it experienced a 3.8% decline in occupancy from 82.5% to 78.7% across its owned and managed senior living … Continue reading

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After Completing Its Corporate Transition, Change Healthcare Copes With COVID-19

Change Healthcare Inc. (CHNG, Change Inc., Change or Inc.) is a new public company formed in 2016 as a joint venture between McKesson Corporation (MCK) and an investor group led by The Blackstone Group.  Over the past four years, the … Continue reading

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Notes and Analysis from Merck’s Investor Day

On June 20, Merck held an investor day, its first in five years, to highlight its goals and objectives and provide a broad perspective on its five-year performance outlook.  Although its blockbuster cancer treatment, KEYTRUDA (pembrolizumab), has been a spectacular … Continue reading

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Five Star Senior Living Struggles to Regain Profitability

Shares of Five Star Senior Living (FVE) have performed poorly over the past two years, even underperforming FVE’s peer group, which has significantly underperformed both the health care sector and the broader market.  The industry is suffering from a slow … Continue reading

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