Category Archives: Consumer Discretionary

Thoughts on the Outlook for Homebuilding Stocks

Homebuilding stocks have had a rough 2022. Year-to-date (through 4/12), my equal-weighted index of 11 publicly-traded U.S. homebuilders has fallen 34.8%. That compares with declines of 7.7% in the S&P 500 and 11.5% in the Russell 2000. Following a three-fold … Continue reading

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Toll Brothers (TOL) 22Q1 Update

Since my last report on December 9, 2021, Toll’s stock has fallen 26.3%, much more than the S&P Mid-Cap 400’s 2.6% decline.  As I noted back then, shares of Toll and other homebuilders were ripe for a correction following their … Continue reading

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Toll Brothers (TOL) 21Q4 Update

Toll Brothers reported stronger-than anticipated fiscal 21Q4 results that once again exceeded my and the consensus estimates.  Its diluted earnings per share were $3.02, up 95% from $1.55 in 20Q4.  My estimate was $2.51 and the consensus estimate was $2.50.

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Toll Brothers 21Q3 Update

Toll Brothers reported stronger-than anticipated fiscal 21Q3 results that once again exceeded my estimates.  Its diluted earnings per share were $1.86, up 71% from $0.59 in 20Q2.  My estimate was $1.48 and the consensus estimate was $1.53.

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2021 Market Outlook – Part 2: S&P 500 Sector Analysis

2020 was of course dominated by the impact of the pandemic on the economy and specifically on the revenues and profits of each of the S&P 500 constituents.  There was a sharp stock market sell-off in March-April, followed by a … Continue reading

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An Uncertain Outlook for Housing

2020 was a surprisingly solid year for housing in light of the pandemic and the havoc that it wreaked in other parts of the economy.  December data will not be reported until later this month.  I project that single-family housing … Continue reading

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Housing Market Update

Despite continuing elevated unemployment and dampened consumer confidence, the housing market has been surprisingly strong in the months following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.  According to the U.S. Commerce Dept., single-family housing starts for August were estimated at the … Continue reading

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After the Quick Rebound, Investors Should Approach Homebuilding Stocks with Caution

Homebuilding stocks have been on a wild ride in 2020.  They boomed from the start of the year, rising 19.1% (according to my index of 11 publicly-traded builders) to February 21, handily beating the 3.0% gain on the S&P 500 … Continue reading

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Recent Observations on Bed Bath & Beyond

The investor optimism that followed the October 2019 appointment of Mark J. Tritton as Bed Bath & Beyond’s CEO and continued after the company gave a preliminary upbeat assessment of its performance early in the Christmas selling season gave way … Continue reading

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A Strong Start for Housing

2019 was a solid year for U.S. housing.  While still subject to modest revisions, government figures show that new residential sales increased 10.4% from an estimated 617,000 units in 2018 to 681,000 units in 2019.  Single-family housing starts advanced 1.4% … Continue reading

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