Category Archives: TOL

September Housing Market Update

The average rate on the 30-year mortgage has risen above 6.00% in response to the latest hike in the Fed Funds target rate.  Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey pegged the average rate at 6.29% this week. The CME’s Fed … Continue reading

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Toll Brothers (TOL) 22Q3 Update

Toll Brothers’ 22Q3 EPS was $2.35, up 25.7% from 21Q3’s $1.87 and above my estimate of $2.22.  Revenues increased 10.6% to $2.49 billion, slightly below my projections.  Deliveries of 2,414 units fell 7.1%, more than expected, but the average sales … Continue reading

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22Q2 Housing Market Update

Despite an accelerating slide in housing sales and production following this year’s rise in mortgage rates, my homebuilder stock price index has performed in line with its benchmarks since April. At current prices, homebuilding stocks trade at less than four … Continue reading

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Thoughts on the Outlook for Homebuilding Stocks

Homebuilding stocks have had a rough 2022. Year-to-date (through 4/12), my equal-weighted index of 11 publicly-traded U.S. homebuilders has fallen 34.8%. That compares with declines of 7.7% in the S&P 500 and 11.5% in the Russell 2000. Following a three-fold … Continue reading

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Toll Brothers (TOL) 22Q1 Update

Since my last report on December 9, 2021, Toll’s stock has fallen 26.3%, much more than the S&P Mid-Cap 400’s 2.6% decline.  As I noted back then, shares of Toll and other homebuilders were ripe for a correction following their … Continue reading

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