Category Archives: TOL
Housing Market Update – March 2023
Housing market data from the U.S. Commerce Dept. and others show sales and production leveled off and even recovered a bit in the final months of 2022 and first two months of 2023. The seasonally-adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of single-family … Continue reading
Toll Brothers (TOL) 22Q4 Update
Toll Brothers reported fiscal 22Q4 results that were much stronger than I anticipated. 22Q4 diluted earnings per share were $5.63 up 86% from $3.02 in 21Q4 and better than my estimate of $3.93. Excluding a $140 million (estimated $0.94 per … Continue reading
November Housing Market Update
Housing market data from the U.S. Commerce Dept. and others show sales and production falling at a rapid rate. The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of single-family housing starts and building permits has fallen for eight consecutive months by about … Continue reading
September Housing Market Update
The average rate on the 30-year mortgage has risen above 6.00% in response to the latest hike in the Fed Funds target rate. Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey pegged the average rate at 6.29% this week. The CME’s Fed … Continue reading
Toll Brothers (TOL) 22Q3 Update
Toll Brothers’ 22Q3 EPS was $2.35, up 25.7% from 21Q3’s $1.87 and above my estimate of $2.22. Revenues increased 10.6% to $2.49 billion, slightly below my projections. Deliveries of 2,414 units fell 7.1%, more than expected, but the average sales … Continue reading
22Q2 Housing Market Update
Despite an accelerating slide in housing sales and production following this year’s rise in mortgage rates, my homebuilder stock price index has performed in line with its benchmarks since April. At current prices, homebuilding stocks trade at less than four … Continue reading
Thoughts on the Outlook for Homebuilding Stocks
Homebuilding stocks have had a rough 2022. Year-to-date (through 4/12), my equal-weighted index of 11 publicly-traded U.S. homebuilders has fallen 34.8%. That compares with declines of 7.7% in the S&P 500 and 11.5% in the Russell 2000. Following a three-fold … Continue reading
Toll Brothers (TOL) 22Q1 Update
Since my last report on December 9, 2021, Toll’s stock has fallen 26.3%, much more than the S&P Mid-Cap 400’s 2.6% decline. As I noted back then, shares of Toll and other homebuilders were ripe for a correction following their … Continue reading