Tag Archives: Housing

November Housing Market Update

Housing market data from the U.S. Commerce Dept. and others show sales and production falling at a rapid rate.  The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of single-family housing starts and building permits has fallen for eight consecutive months by about … Continue reading

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September Housing Market Update

The average rate on the 30-year mortgage has risen above 6.00% in response to the latest hike in the Fed Funds target rate.  Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey pegged the average rate at 6.29% this week. The CME’s Fed … Continue reading

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21Q3 Housing Market Update

The housing market has been quite strong since shortly after the onset of the pandemic, fueled by low interest rates, pent-up demand and a strong desire among urban apartment dwellers to escape the coronavirus.  New home sales from May 2020 … Continue reading

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An Uncertain Outlook for Housing

2020 was a surprisingly solid year for housing in light of the pandemic and the havoc that it wreaked in other parts of the economy.  December data will not be reported until later this month.  I project that single-family housing … Continue reading

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Housing Market Update – February 2019

The outlook for housing (or more precisely, sentiment about the outlook for housing) has improved in recent weeks, primarily because of the decline in mortgage rates.  The average rate on the 30-year mortgage has fallen by 57 basis points (bp) … Continue reading

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The Pause that Refreshes the Homebuilders?

It has certainly been a rough year for homebuilding stocks, but not nearly so bad for the housing market. The Lark Research Homebuilder Stock Price Index, an equal weighted average of eleven publicly-traded homebuilder stocks, was down 29.2% year-to-date through December 7. By comparison, the S&P 500 has declined 1.5% and the Russell 2000 has declined 5.7%. Continue reading

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A Possible Early Sign of a Market Rebound

Last week, stocks fell sharply. The S&P 500 ended the week down 5.16% in price. The Lark Research Homebuilder Stock Price Index fell 6.02%, underperforming the broader market.

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2017 Housing Market Outlook

Housing market activity has strengthened in recent months.  This has raised the hope of another leg up in the recovery.  Yet, investors are still skeptical about the industry’s future prospects.

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KBH Looks to Extend Gains in 2017

KB Home (KBH) was the sixth largest builder in the U.S. in 2016, according to Builder Magazine.  The company operates in four regions, nine states and 39 metropolitan markets.  It generates most of its sales in California, with operations in … Continue reading

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Weak Economic Growth Does Not Necessarily Point to Recession

So far, the stock market appears to be anticipating a slowdown in economic activity, but not necessarily a recession. Some think that the decline in stocks might actually cause an economic pullback (consistent with George Soros’s concept of reflexivity). Certainly, … Continue reading

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Sentiment on Homebuilding Stocks Turns Negative Suddenly

Homebuilding stocks have been crushed since the beginning of the year and especially over the past few weeks. The Lark Research Homebuilder Stock Price Index, (an equal-weighted price-only weekly index of the share prices of 12 publicly-traded homebuilders, rebalanced at … Continue reading

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Stocks Take A Tumble Again

Stocks got off to a terrible start in its first week of 2016 – the worst start to a year ever, according to Barron’s.  The S&P 500 closed the week down 6%.  Most major averages posted similar declines.  The S&P … Continue reading

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