Category Archives: Real Estate

Diversified Healthcare Trust (DHC) 22Q3 Update

22Q3 GAAP loss was $0.34 per share and normalized FFO was –$0.06 per share, below my forecast of ‑$0.23 and +$0.01, respectively.  The Office Portfolio met expectations, but Senior Housing Operating Portfolio (SHOP) results were disappointing as improved occupancy and … Continue reading

Posted in ALR, DHC, High Yield Bonds, Real Estate | Tagged | Leave a comment

September Housing Market Update

The average rate on the 30-year mortgage has risen above 6.00% in response to the latest hike in the Fed Funds target rate.  Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey pegged the average rate at 6.29% this week. The CME’s Fed … Continue reading

Posted in BZH, Consumer Discretionary, Housing, KBH, Market Commentary, Real Estate, TOL | Tagged , | Comments Off on September Housing Market Update

Diversified Healthcare Trust (DHC) 22Q2 Update

22Q2 GAAP loss was $0.46 per share and normalized FFO -$0.04 per share, below my forecast of -$0.42 and +$0.01, respectively.  The Office Portfolio disappointed again, raising concerns about declining occupancy.  Senior Housing Operating Portfolio (SHOP) results met expectations.

Posted in ALR, DHC, Real Estate | Tagged | Comments Off on Diversified Healthcare Trust (DHC) 22Q2 Update

Bluegreen Vacations Holding (BVH) 22Q2 Update

2022 second quarter net income attributable to shareholders was $17.8 million or $0.87 per diluted share, compared with 21Q2’s $19.5 million or $0.93 per share.  The decline in EPS occurred despite a 21.8% increase in revenues to $235.6 million.

Posted in BVH, Real Estate | Tagged , | Comments Off on Bluegreen Vacations Holding (BVH) 22Q2 Update

Bluegreen Vacations Holding Corp. (BVH) 22Q1 Update

2022 first quarter net income from continuing operations attributable to shareholders was $16.0 million or $0.76 per diluted share, compared with 21Q1’s $3.1 million or $0.16 per share.  Revenues improved to $195.1 million from $146.4 million.

Posted in BVH, Real Estate | Tagged | Comments Off on Bluegreen Vacations Holding Corp. (BVH) 22Q1 Update

DHC 22Q1 Update

22Q1 In Line with Expectations.  Maintaining Performance Rating and Price Target. 22Q1 GAAP earnings were $1.01 per share and normalized FFO –$0.09 per share, in line with my expectations of $1.04 and –$0.06.  Excluding a $327.8 million gain on the … Continue reading

Posted in ALR, DHC, Real Estate | Tagged | Comments Off on DHC 22Q1 Update

The Drivers of Large Cap Stock Performance in 2021

Estimated Returns by Sectors, Industry Groups and Industries Large cap stocks, as measured by the Lark Research Large Cap index (the “Index”) which currently mirrors the S&P 500, turned in another impressive performance in 2021.  The Index posted a price … Continue reading

Posted in Energy, Financials, Market Commentary, Real Estate, Sectors, Technology, Utilities | Tagged , , , | Comments Off on The Drivers of Large Cap Stock Performance in 2021

Toll Brothers (TOL) 21Q4 Update

Toll Brothers reported stronger-than anticipated fiscal 21Q4 results that once again exceeded my and the consensus estimates.  Its diluted earnings per share were $3.02, up 95% from $1.55 in 20Q4.  My estimate was $2.51 and the consensus estimate was $2.50.

Posted in Consumer Discretionary, Housing, Real Estate | Tagged | Comments Off on Toll Brothers (TOL) 21Q4 Update

DHC 21Q3 Results

Diversified Healthcare Trust (DHC) reported 21Q3 normalized FFO of –$0.04 per share, compared with 21Q2’s $0.05.  The loss came despite a 40 bp improvement in SHOP occupancy.  Operating costs remain high and senior living operators are discounting resident rates more … Continue reading

Posted in DHC, FVE, Real Estate | Tagged | Comments Off on DHC 21Q3 Results

21Q3 Housing Market Update

The housing market has been quite strong since shortly after the onset of the pandemic, fueled by low interest rates, pent-up demand and a strong desire among urban apartment dwellers to escape the coronavirus.  New home sales from May 2020 … Continue reading

Posted in Housing, Real Estate | Tagged , , , | Comments Off on 21Q3 Housing Market Update

DHC 21Q2 Update

Progress on Strategic Repositioning; Performance in Line with Expectations; Upgrading Performance Rating; Maintaining Price Target of ~$7.50. DHC reported 21Q2 normalized funds from operations (FFO) of $12.2 million or $0.05 per share, lower than 20Q2’s $0.25, due mostly to a … Continue reading

Posted in DHC, FVE, Real Estate, SNH | Tagged | Comments Off on DHC 21Q2 Update

Bluegreen Vacations Holding Corp. Stands to Gain as Domestic Travel Improves

On May 5, 2021, Bluegreen Vacations Holding Corporation (BVH), formerly known as BBX Capital Corporation, completed the acquisition of the 7% publicly-traded ownership stake of Bluegreen Vacations Corporation (BXG) that it did not already own through a statutory short-form merger … Continue reading

Posted in BVH, Real Estate | Tagged | Comments Off on Bluegreen Vacations Holding Corp. Stands to Gain as Domestic Travel Improves

Five Star and DHC Restructure Their Agreement

On April 9, Five Star and DHC announced a restructuring of their management agreement whereby DHC will transition the management of 108 smaller senior living communities (SLCs) with a total of 7,500 units to other operators by the end of … Continue reading

Posted in DHC, FVE, Health Care, Real Estate | Tagged , | Comments Off on Five Star and DHC Restructure Their Agreement

Vaccinations Raise Visibility of a Bottom in Occupancy for DHC

Diversified Healthcare Trust reported 2020 fourth quarter normalized funds from operations (FFO) (my definition) of $15.1 million or $0.06 per share, slightly better than 20Q3, but well below 19Q4.  The results were modestly better than I anticipated with lower operating … Continue reading

Posted in DHC, Real Estate | Tagged , | Comments Off on Vaccinations Raise Visibility of a Bottom in Occupancy for DHC

Five Star Senior Living (FVE) Update

Vaccination of 90% of Residents Raises Visibility on a Rebound in Occupancy Five Star reported slightly stronger 20Q4 results than anticipated, due primarily to gains on investments held by its captive insurer.  Average occupancy across its owned and leased senior … Continue reading

Posted in DHC, FVE, Health Care, Real Estate | Tagged , | Comments Off on Five Star Senior Living (FVE) Update

2021 Market Outlook – Part 2: S&P 500 Sector Analysis

2020 was of course dominated by the impact of the pandemic on the economy and specifically on the revenues and profits of each of the S&P 500 constituents.  There was a sharp stock market sell-off in March-April, followed by a … Continue reading

Posted in Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Energy, Financials, Health Care, Housing, Industrials, Market Commentary, Materials, Real Estate, Sectors, Technology, Telecommunications, Utilities | Tagged | Comments Off on 2021 Market Outlook – Part 2: S&P 500 Sector Analysis

Colony Credit Real Estate 20Q3 Update

Shares of Colony Credit Real Estate (CLNC) have surged over the past six weeks, nearly doubling from a low of $4.37 on Oct. 29 to a high of $8.11 on Nov. 25.  Since then, CLNC’s share price has been trading … Continue reading

Posted in CLNY, Real Estate | Tagged , | Comments Off on Colony Credit Real Estate 20Q3 Update

Diversified Healthcare Trust (DHC): Weaker Than Anticipated 20Q3 Results

Diversified Healthcare Trust reported 2020 third quarter normalized funds from operations (FFO) (according to my definition) of $11.0 million or $0.05 per share, well below results for 19Q3 and 20Q2 and also below my projection of $27.8 million or $0.12 … Continue reading

Posted in DHC, Real Estate | Comments Off on Diversified Healthcare Trust (DHC): Weaker Than Anticipated 20Q3 Results

Debt Refinancing Eliminates Risk of Default; But Diversified Healthcare Trust Will Need to Raise Equity Eventually

Diversified Healthcare Trust (DHC) reported 2020 second quarter normalized funds from operations (FFO) (according to my definition) of $52.8 million or $0.22 per share, down 33% from $81.1 million or $0.33 per share in the prior year quarter.  The decline … Continue reading

Posted in DHC, Real Estate | Tagged | Comments Off on Debt Refinancing Eliminates Risk of Default; But Diversified Healthcare Trust Will Need to Raise Equity Eventually

A Weak Second Quarter Should Mark the Bottom for Colony Capital, But Future Dilution is a Key Issue

Colony Capital reported a 2020 second quarter net loss of $2.04 billion or $4.33 per share, compared with a much smaller loss in the prior year quarter.  This year’s loss was driven by $2.0 billion of impairment charges taken across … Continue reading

Posted in CLNY, Real Estate | Tagged , | Comments Off on A Weak Second Quarter Should Mark the Bottom for Colony Capital, But Future Dilution is a Key Issue

Colony Capital: The Big Pivot on Hold

In response to activist pressure precipitated by a deterioration in its financial performance and a steady decline in its stock price, Colony Capital announced in November 2019 a new strategy to focus on growing its Digital Realty and Investment Management … Continue reading

Posted in CLNY, Real Estate | Tagged , , | Comments Off on Colony Capital: The Big Pivot on Hold

After the Quick Rebound, Investors Should Approach Homebuilding Stocks with Caution

Homebuilding stocks have been on a wild ride in 2020.  They boomed from the start of the year, rising 19.1% (according to my index of 11 publicly-traded builders) to February 21, handily beating the 3.0% gain on the S&P 500 … Continue reading

Posted in Consumer Discretionary, Housing, Real Estate | Tagged | Comments Off on After the Quick Rebound, Investors Should Approach Homebuilding Stocks with Caution

DHC Cuts Distribution As It Copes with COVID-19 Fallout

DHC’s share price closed on Thursday (4/9) at $3.51, down 58.4% year-to-date, worse than the peer group average of down 24.7%, but the stock is up from its bottom of $2.00.  Most of the losses for DHC occurred during March. … Continue reading

Posted in DHC, Real Estate | Tagged | Comments Off on DHC Cuts Distribution As It Copes with COVID-19 Fallout

Homebuilder Stocks Fall as Optimism About Global Economic Growth Rises

Homebuilding stocks have been the best performing of the 150-odd sectors in the Dow Jones U.S. Total Market Index, up 44.4% over the past 12 months as of November 8. Last year, they declined sharply in the face of Federal … Continue reading

Posted in Consumer Discretionary, Housing, Real Estate | Tagged , , | Comments Off on Homebuilder Stocks Fall as Optimism About Global Economic Growth Rises

SNH Still Seems Behind Goal on Asset Sales

SNH has set a goal of $900 million in announced or closed asset sales in 2019.  With more than nine months of the year gone, it has completed only $119.1 million in asset sales and has an estimated $125 million … Continue reading

Posted in DHC, Real Estate, SNH | Tagged | Comments Off on SNH Still Seems Behind Goal on Asset Sales

A Reset for Senior Housing Properties Trust

In response to the financial difficulties of its primary tenant, Five Star Senior Living (FVE), Senior Housing Properties Trust (SNH) has been forced to negotiate a change in the structure of their business relationship.  Specifically, SNH has agreed to cancel … Continue reading

Posted in DHC, Real Estate, SNH | Tagged , | Comments Off on A Reset for Senior Housing Properties Trust

The Old and New Five Star

Five Star Senior Living (FVE) and its landlord Senior Housing Properties Trust (SNH) have previously announced a restructuring of their commercial arrangements whereby SNH will cancel the five master leases that cover 181 senior living and skilled nursing facilities currently … Continue reading

Posted in FVE, Real Estate | Tagged , | Comments Off on The Old and New Five Star

A Solid First Half for Housing and the Builders

A typical analysis from policy makers, like the Federal Reserve, points out that activity in the housing market has declined so far this year; but that assertion focuses primarily on housing starts.   A more complete picture from the national data … Continue reading

Posted in Consumer Discretionary, Housing, Real Estate, Uncategorized | Tagged , | Comments Off on A Solid First Half for Housing and the Builders

Bluegreen’s Share Price Plunges on Bass Pro Contract Cancellation

Shares of Bluegreen Vacations Corporation (BXG) received a double whammy in May from the parent company BBX Capital’s (BBX) decision to back out of its offer to buyback BXG’s public float – equal to 10% of outstanding shares – and … Continue reading

Posted in BXG, Real Estate | Tagged , | Comments Off on Bluegreen’s Share Price Plunges on Bass Pro Contract Cancellation

PulteGroup (PHM) 18Q1 Results

PulteGroup reported first quarter earnings of $166.8 million or $0.59 per share, even with a year ago, but still well ahead of the consensus estimate.  Revenues were just short of $2.0 billion, up 1.4% from the prior year.  Unit closings … Continue reading

Posted in Consumer Discretionary, Housing, Real Estate | Tagged | Comments Off on PulteGroup (PHM) 18Q1 Results

Senior Housing Properties Trust Nears Restructuring/ Acquisition of Five Star

After reporting a 2018 fourth quarter loss of $23 million, negative EBITDA for the quarter of $12.5 million and a $51 million drawdown on its bank credit facility, it is clear that Five Star, SNH’s largest tenant, must obtain a … Continue reading

Posted in DHC, FVE, Real Estate, SNH | Tagged , | Comments Off on Senior Housing Properties Trust Nears Restructuring/ Acquisition of Five Star

Housing Market Update – February 2019

The outlook for housing (or more precisely, sentiment about the outlook for housing) has improved in recent weeks, primarily because of the decline in mortgage rates.  The average rate on the 30-year mortgage has fallen by 57 basis points (bp) … Continue reading

Posted in Consumer Discretionary, Housing, Market Commentary, Real Estate | Tagged , | Comments Off on Housing Market Update – February 2019

Five Star Heads Toward a Restructuring

As a result of recent operating losses, Five Star Senior Living faces a restructuring with its landlord, Senior Housing Properties Trust. Continue reading

Posted in DHC, FVE, Real Estate, SNH | Tagged , | Comments Off on Five Star Heads Toward a Restructuring

The Pause that Refreshes the Homebuilders?

It has certainly been a rough year for homebuilding stocks, but not nearly so bad for the housing market. The Lark Research Homebuilder Stock Price Index, an equal weighted average of eleven publicly-traded homebuilder stocks, was down 29.2% year-to-date through December 7. By comparison, the S&P 500 has declined 1.5% and the Russell 2000 has declined 5.7%. Continue reading

Posted in Housing, Real Estate | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

BXG 2018 Third Quarter Update

Since floating the IPO in November 2017, Bluegreen Vacations Corporation’s (BXG) share price has come full circle.  The stock opened its first day of trading at $13.55, rallied to a high of $25.91 in July and has since fallen back … Continue reading

Posted in BXG, Real Estate | Tagged | Comments Off on BXG 2018 Third Quarter Update

An Update on Senior Housing Properties Trust (SNH)

Pressure from Declining Occupancy; But SNH Has Sufficient Financial Flexibility to Cope for Next Two Years or More.

Posted in DHC, FVE, Real Estate, SNH | Tagged , , | Comments Off on An Update on Senior Housing Properties Trust (SNH)