Category Archives: Real Estate
Diversified Healthcare Trust (DHC) 23Q2 Update
23Q2 GAAP loss was $0.30 per share and normalized FFO was $0.05 per share, an improvement over 22Q2’s loss of $0.46 and FFO of -$0.14. The GAAP net loss was higher than the $0.24 loss that I projected, but normalized … Continue reading
Bluegreen Vacations Holding Corp. (BVH) 23Q2 Update
23Q2 net income attributable to BVH was $21.9 million or $1.07 per diluted share compared with 22Q2’s $17.8 million or $0.87. Revenues grew 10.7% to $260.6 million, and costs and expenses rose 9.0% to $226.1 million. SG&A expenses, a key … Continue reading
Bluegreen Vacations Holding Corp. (BVH) 23Q1 Update
23Q1 net income attributable to shareholders was $11.5 million or $0.71 per diluted share, compared with 22Q1’s $16.0 million or $0.76 per share. Revenues grew 12.3% to $219.1 million, but operating expenses rose 17.4% to $199.2 million, with double-digit increases … Continue reading
2022 Large Cap Performance Analysis
Large cap stocks, as measured by the Lark Research Large Cap Index (the “Index”)[1] which mirrors the S&P 500, posted a decline of 19.5% in 2022. As in previous years, most of the performance was driven by a handful of … Continue reading
Diversified Healthcare Trust (DHC) 22Q3 Update
22Q3 GAAP loss was $0.34 per share and normalized FFO was –$0.06 per share, below my forecast of ‑$0.23 and +$0.01, respectively. The Office Portfolio met expectations, but Senior Housing Operating Portfolio (SHOP) results were disappointing as improved occupancy and … Continue reading
September Housing Market Update
The average rate on the 30-year mortgage has risen above 6.00% in response to the latest hike in the Fed Funds target rate. Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey pegged the average rate at 6.29% this week. The CME’s Fed … Continue reading
Diversified Healthcare Trust (DHC) 22Q2 Update
22Q2 GAAP loss was $0.46 per share and normalized FFO -$0.04 per share, below my forecast of -$0.42 and +$0.01, respectively. The Office Portfolio disappointed again, raising concerns about declining occupancy. Senior Housing Operating Portfolio (SHOP) results met expectations.
Bluegreen Vacations Holding (BVH) 22Q2 Update
2022 second quarter net income attributable to shareholders was $17.8 million or $0.87 per diluted share, compared with 21Q2’s $19.5 million or $0.93 per share. The decline in EPS occurred despite a 21.8% increase in revenues to $235.6 million.
Bluegreen Vacations Holding Corp. (BVH) 22Q1 Update
2022 first quarter net income from continuing operations attributable to shareholders was $16.0 million or $0.76 per diluted share, compared with 21Q1’s $3.1 million or $0.16 per share. Revenues improved to $195.1 million from $146.4 million.
DHC 22Q1 Update
22Q1 In Line with Expectations. Maintaining Performance Rating and Price Target. 22Q1 GAAP earnings were $1.01 per share and normalized FFO –$0.09 per share, in line with my expectations of $1.04 and –$0.06. Excluding a $327.8 million gain on the … Continue reading
DHC 21Q4 Update
Lowering Estimates for 2022 and Adding 2023, Lowering Price Target to $5.00 DHC reported 21Q4 normalized FFO of –$0.09 per share, compared with 21Q3’s ‑$0.05 and 20Q4’s +$0.09. Although the Office portfolio posted another solid quarter and the Senior Housing … Continue reading
The Drivers of Large Cap Stock Performance in 2021
Estimated Returns by Sectors, Industry Groups and Industries Large cap stocks, as measured by the Lark Research Large Cap index (the “Index”) which currently mirrors the S&P 500, turned in another impressive performance in 2021. The Index posted a price … Continue reading
DHC Announces Sales of Joint Venture Interests in Certain Office Properties
Sales Raise Over $1 Billion, Giving the Trust the Means to Retire the 9.75% Senior Notes due 2025 When They Become Callable in June 2022. DHC announced on January 31 that it has entered into a joint venture with two … Continue reading
Toll Brothers (TOL) 21Q4 Update
Toll Brothers reported stronger-than anticipated fiscal 21Q4 results that once again exceeded my and the consensus estimates. Its diluted earnings per share were $3.02, up 95% from $1.55 in 20Q4. My estimate was $2.51 and the consensus estimate was $2.50.
DHC 21Q3 Results
Diversified Healthcare Trust (DHC) reported 21Q3 normalized FFO of –$0.04 per share, compared with 21Q2’s $0.05. The loss came despite a 40 bp improvement in SHOP occupancy. Operating costs remain high and senior living operators are discounting resident rates more … Continue reading
21Q3 Housing Market Update
The housing market has been quite strong since shortly after the onset of the pandemic, fueled by low interest rates, pent-up demand and a strong desire among urban apartment dwellers to escape the coronavirus. New home sales from May 2020 … Continue reading
DHC 21Q2 Update
Progress on Strategic Repositioning; Performance in Line with Expectations; Upgrading Performance Rating; Maintaining Price Target of ~$7.50. DHC reported 21Q2 normalized funds from operations (FFO) of $12.2 million or $0.05 per share, lower than 20Q2’s $0.25, due mostly to a … Continue reading
Bluegreen Vacations Holding Corp. Stands to Gain as Domestic Travel Improves
On May 5, 2021, Bluegreen Vacations Holding Corporation (BVH), formerly known as BBX Capital Corporation, completed the acquisition of the 7% publicly-traded ownership stake of Bluegreen Vacations Corporation (BXG) that it did not already own through a statutory short-form merger … Continue reading
Five Star and DHC Restructure Their Agreement
On April 9, Five Star and DHC announced a restructuring of their management agreement whereby DHC will transition the management of 108 smaller senior living communities (SLCs) with a total of 7,500 units to other operators by the end of … Continue reading
Vaccinations Raise Visibility of a Bottom in Occupancy for DHC
Diversified Healthcare Trust reported 2020 fourth quarter normalized funds from operations (FFO) (my definition) of $15.1 million or $0.06 per share, slightly better than 20Q3, but well below 19Q4. The results were modestly better than I anticipated with lower operating … Continue reading
Five Star Senior Living (FVE) Update
Vaccination of 90% of Residents Raises Visibility on a Rebound in Occupancy Five Star reported slightly stronger 20Q4 results than anticipated, due primarily to gains on investments held by its captive insurer. Average occupancy across its owned and leased senior … Continue reading
2021 Market Outlook – Part 2: S&P 500 Sector Analysis
2020 was of course dominated by the impact of the pandemic on the economy and specifically on the revenues and profits of each of the S&P 500 constituents. There was a sharp stock market sell-off in March-April, followed by a … Continue reading
Diversified Healthcare Trust (DHC): Weaker Than Anticipated 20Q3 Results
Diversified Healthcare Trust reported 2020 third quarter normalized funds from operations (FFO) (according to my definition) of $11.0 million or $0.05 per share, well below results for 19Q3 and 20Q2 and also below my projection of $27.8 million or $0.12 … Continue reading
Debt Refinancing Eliminates Risk of Default; But Diversified Healthcare Trust Will Need to Raise Equity Eventually
Diversified Healthcare Trust (DHC) reported 2020 second quarter normalized funds from operations (FFO) (according to my definition) of $52.8 million or $0.22 per share, down 33% from $81.1 million or $0.33 per share in the prior year quarter. The decline … Continue reading
After the Quick Rebound, Investors Should Approach Homebuilding Stocks with Caution
Homebuilding stocks have been on a wild ride in 2020. They boomed from the start of the year, rising 19.1% (according to my index of 11 publicly-traded builders) to February 21, handily beating the 3.0% gain on the S&P 500 … Continue reading
DHC Cuts Distribution As It Copes with COVID-19 Fallout
DHC’s share price closed on Thursday (4/9) at $3.51, down 58.4% year-to-date, worse than the peer group average of down 24.7%, but the stock is up from its bottom of $2.00. Most of the losses for DHC occurred during March. … Continue reading
Homebuilder Stocks Fall as Optimism About Global Economic Growth Rises
Homebuilding stocks have been the best performing of the 150-odd sectors in the Dow Jones U.S. Total Market Index, up 44.4% over the past 12 months as of November 8. Last year, they declined sharply in the face of Federal … Continue reading
SNH Still Seems Behind Goal on Asset Sales
SNH has set a goal of $900 million in announced or closed asset sales in 2019. With more than nine months of the year gone, it has completed only $119.1 million in asset sales and has an estimated $125 million … Continue reading
Eliminating the RMR Discount
The five publicly-traded REITs that are managed by the RMR Group, Inc. (RMR), a Newton, Mass.-based property manager, have often traded at significant discounts to their peers. The discount has been attributed to the nature of the relationship between RMR … Continue reading
A Reset for Senior Housing Properties Trust
In response to the financial difficulties of its primary tenant, Five Star Senior Living (FVE), Senior Housing Properties Trust (SNH) has been forced to negotiate a change in the structure of their business relationship. Specifically, SNH has agreed to cancel … Continue reading
The Old and New Five Star
Five Star Senior Living (FVE) and its landlord Senior Housing Properties Trust (SNH) have previously announced a restructuring of their commercial arrangements whereby SNH will cancel the five master leases that cover 181 senior living and skilled nursing facilities currently … Continue reading
A Solid First Half for Housing and the Builders
A typical analysis from policy makers, like the Federal Reserve, points out that activity in the housing market has declined so far this year; but that assertion focuses primarily on housing starts. A more complete picture from the national data … Continue reading
Bluegreen’s Share Price Plunges on Bass Pro Contract Cancellation
Shares of Bluegreen Vacations Corporation (BXG) received a double whammy in May from the parent company BBX Capital’s (BBX) decision to back out of its offer to buyback BXG’s public float – equal to 10% of outstanding shares – and … Continue reading
Senior Housing Properties Trust Nears Restructuring/ Acquisition of Five Star
After reporting a 2018 fourth quarter loss of $23 million, negative EBITDA for the quarter of $12.5 million and a $51 million drawdown on its bank credit facility, it is clear that Five Star, SNH’s largest tenant, must obtain a … Continue reading
Housing Market Update – February 2019
The outlook for housing (or more precisely, sentiment about the outlook for housing) has improved in recent weeks, primarily because of the decline in mortgage rates. The average rate on the 30-year mortgage has fallen by 57 basis points (bp) … Continue reading
Five Star Heads Toward a Restructuring
As a result of recent operating losses, Five Star Senior Living faces a restructuring with its landlord, Senior Housing Properties Trust. Continue reading
The Pause that Refreshes the Homebuilders?
It has certainly been a rough year for homebuilding stocks, but not nearly so bad for the housing market. The Lark Research Homebuilder Stock Price Index, an equal weighted average of eleven publicly-traded homebuilder stocks, was down 29.2% year-to-date through December 7. By comparison, the S&P 500 has declined 1.5% and the Russell 2000 has declined 5.7%. Continue reading
BXG 2018 Third Quarter Update
Since floating the IPO in November 2017, Bluegreen Vacations Corporation’s (BXG) share price has come full circle. The stock opened its first day of trading at $13.55, rallied to a high of $25.91 in July and has since fallen back … Continue reading
An Update on Senior Housing Properties Trust (SNH)
Pressure from Declining Occupancy; But SNH Has Sufficient Financial Flexibility to Cope for Next Two Years or More.