Pfizer (PFE) 25Q3 Update

Pfizer (PFE) reported 25Q3 revenues of $16.7 billion, down 5.9% from 24Q3 and 6.3% below my estimate.  All of the decline was due to declines in COMIRNATY and PAXLOVID, the COVID-19 medicines, compared with both prior year levels and my projections.  GAAP diluted EPS was $0.62, below 24Q3’s $0.78, but better than my estimate of $0.51.  Non-GAAP diluted EPS of $0.87 was short of last year’s $1.06, but above my estimate of $0.73.

Management set its 2025 revenue guidance at $62 billion, vs. a range of $61-$64 billion previously, and raised its adjusted (non-GAAP) EPS target to $3.00-$3.15 from $2.90-$3.10.  The increase in earnings guidance is due entirely to  a lower expected adjusted effective tax rate of 11% (vs. 13% previously).  My updated projections anticipate 2025 GAAP diluted EPS $2.09, up from $2.01 and non-GAAP EPS of $3.18 from $3.10.

For 2026, management has set guidance of $59.5-$62.5 billion, a drop of 3.2% at the midpoint from its updated 2025 guidance, due to lower expected sales from its COVID medicines.  It also anticipates adjusted diluted EPS of $2.80-$3.00, a decline of 5.7% at the midpoint from its 2025 guidance.  My projections anticipate revenues of $62.4 billion, down from $63.6 billion previously, GAAP EPS of $2.37 (vs. $2.33) and non-GAAP adjusted EPS of $3.08 (vs. $3.16).

The company continues to advance its R&D pipeline, entering a licensing agreement with 3SBio, a Chinese biopharma company, for SSGJ-707, a bispecific antibody indicated for the treatment of non-small cell lung cancer and metastatic colorectal cancer.  It has also acquired Metsera, a biopharma company developing the next generation of medicines for obesity and cardiometabolic diseases.  In late September, it announced an agreement with the U.S. government to ensure that Americans receive comparable drug prices to those available in other developed countries.  It also received a 3-year grace period on tariffs as it invests to reshore manufacturing to the U.S.

Since my last report (8/7), Pfizer’s stock has risen 6.2%, below the S&P 500’s 9.8% gain and the NYSE ARCA Pharmaceutical Index’s ($DRG) 29.9% gain.  Pharmaceutical stocks recovered quickly at the end of 2025 in anticipation and in the aftermath of announced pricing settlements with the U.S. government.  Although Pfizer will also benefit from its settlement, the market apparently remains concerned about the prospect of declining revenue and earnings from patent expirations, loss of exclusivity and generic launches over the next three years.

Given that outlook, I am lowering my price target from $33 to $28, equal to 12.0 times projected 2026 GAAP EPS of $2.37 and 10.0 times non-GAAP EPS of $3.10. which is below the peer group average of about 14.0.  The potential total return is 16.7%, including a 6.8% dividend yield, so I am keeping my performance rating at “1” (Buy).

This is a summary of my recent update report on Pfizer, Inc. (PFE). To obtain a copy of the report, please reach out to me using the contact information provide below.

January 9, 2026 (Report date is January 8, 2026.)

Stephen P. Percoco
Lark Research
839 Dewitt Street
Linden, New Jersey 07036
(908) 975-0250
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© 2015-2026 by Stephen P. Percoco, Lark Research.   All rights reserved.

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