Spire reported 25Q3 GAAP EPS of $0.29, reversing last year’s 24Q2’s loss of $0.28. Non-GAAP, net economic EPS (NEEPS) was $0.01 vs. a loss of $0.14. I had projected a GAAP and NEEPS loss of $0.08. By segment, Gas Utility lost $10 million, below my estimate of a $5.3 million loss. Gas Marketing’s economic earnings were $5.3 million, above 24Q3’s $1.0 million and my estimate of $0.6 million. Midstream’s earnings rose 16.6% to $16.2 million, above my estimate of $13.2 million. Other costs were $7.4 million, below last year’s $8.2 million and my estimate of $9.4 million.
Management reaffirmed its full year NEEPS guidance of $4.40-$4.60 and long-term economic EPS growth target of 5%-7%. My projections, which are in line, anticipate 2025 GAAP EPS of $4.79 and NEEPS of $4.59, up $0.38 and $0.09 from my previous report. My 2026 projections of $4.75 and $4.78, respectively, are up $0.02 and $0.03, respectively.
In August, Spire Missouri reached a unanimous stipulation agreement with the staff of MoPSC and interest parties for a $210 million annual revenue increase. The settlement includes a $4.4 billion rate base, but no allowed ROE or capital structure. It refines the methodology of its weather normalization mechanism, a key company objective. If approved by the Commission, new rates will take effect October 24 and the average residential bill will rise 11% or $9 per month.
On July 29, Spire agreed to acquire the Tennessee local distribution business of Piedmont Natural Gas, a subsidiary of Duke Energy (DUK). The purchase price of $2.48 billion, which is on a cash free and debt free basis, represents a purchase price multiple of 1.55 times projected 2026 rate base. Piedmont’s Tennessee business serves 205,000 customers, 91% of which are residential, in Nashville. Spire believes that the acquisition will be accretive and supportive of its long-term 5%-7% economic earnings growth target. Subject to regulatory approval, antitrust clearance and other customary closing conditions, it is expected to close in the first calendar quarter of 2026. Given its high leverage, Spire may issue a combination of debt, equity and hybrid securities to finance the acquisition, but it may also sell its storage assets. Since it will close in the middle of fiscal 2026, Spire will not incorporate it into its fiscal 2026 guidance.
Since my last report (5/21), Spire’s stock has advanced 2.4%. That compares with the gains of 4.6% in the S&P Mid-Cap 400 and 3.8% in the Dow Jones U.S. Gas Utility Index. The stock opened up 1.9% on earnings but finished the day down 1.0%. Since then, it has recovered what it lost, ending this week up 2.4%.
I am maintaining my $78 price target $78, which equates to about 16.4 times projected 2026 GAAP EPS of $4.75 and adjusted (non-GAAP) earnings of $4.78, in line with the current one-year forward valuation. The potential total return is 9.3%, including the stock’s 4.2% dividend yield; so I am affirming my performance rating of “3” (Neutral).
This is a summary of my recent update report on Spire, Inc. (SR). To obtain a copy of the report, please reach out to me using the contact information provided below.
August 13, 2025 (Report published on August 10, 2025.
Stephen P. Percoco
Lark Research
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