GE Vernova (GEV) posted 25Q1 revenues of $8.0 billion, up 21.3% YOY. Operating income swung from a loss of $289 million to income of $43 million. With pension and other income, net of interest costs, pre-tax earnings swung from a loss of $95 million in 24Q1 to earnings of $333 million in 25Q1. Net earnings were $254 million or $0.93 per diluted share, reversing last year’s loss of $130 million or $0.47 per share. The company does not define adjusted (non-GAAP) EPS. However, the Street apparently does, as actual 25Q1 EPS was reported on the business media portals as $0.85 per share, above the $0.37 consensus estimate. I had anticipated GAAP EPS of $0.40 and non-GAAP EPS of $0.19 per share.
Power segment revenues were $4.4 billion, up 9.6% YOY, and up 16% organically. Unit sales rose from 17 to 19, with five 5 H-class turbines delivered in the quarter, up from one a year ago. Orders jumped 28% to $6.2 billion. Power EBITDA rose 47.3% to $508 million, with EBITDA margin up 90 bp to 11.5%. Wind revenues rose 12.9% to $1.85 billion. Wind orders, however, fell 41% to $640 million, due to permitting delays and policy uncertainty as well as the winding down of the Offshore backlog. Wind EBITDA improved modestly from a loss of $173 million to a loss of $146 million. Electrification revenues rose 13.8% to $1.88 billion. Orders slipped 3% to $3.57 billion. Electrication EBITDA jumped from $66 million to $214 million, as EBITDA margin surged 680 bp to 11.4%.
Despite the strong earnings beat, management left its full year guidance unchanged, as it sees an offset of as much as $300-$400 million in higher costs due to the implementation of the tariffs. With the incorporation of 25Q1 results and other assumption tweaks, my projection model now shows 2025 GAAP EPS of $6.93, up from $6.65 previously, and 2026 GAAP EPS of $9.24, up from $9.00.
Since my last report on 2/19, GE Vernova’s stock has fallen 10.4%, slightly better than the S&P 500’s 12.5% decline. The stock hit an intraday low of $252.06 on April 2, just above my previous price target. From a technical point of view, the stock has been rangebound since mid-February, with a positive bias in recent weeks. Based upon the company’s performance and recent trading action, I have raised my price target from $250 to $300. The new price target equates to 32.5 times projected GAAP earnings of $9.24, lower than the current one-year forward multiple of 48.4 times. At the current price of $335.46, that still represents a potential negative total return 9.4%, so I have raised my performance rating from “5” (Sell) to “4” (Underperform). The implied negative total return is on the borderline between neutral and underperform, but I have decided to raise the performance rating by only one-notch for now.
This is a summary of Lark Research’s recent report on GE Vernova, Inc. (GEV) . To obtain a copy of the report, please reach out to Steve Percoco using the contact information provided below.
June 20 2025 (Report published on April 23, 2025.)
Stephen P. Percoco
Lark Research
839 Dewitt Street
Linden, New Jersey 07036
(908) 975-0250
admin@larkresearch.com
© 2015-2025 by Stephen P. Percoco, Lark Research. All rights reserved.
This blog post (as with all posts on this website) represents the opinion of Lark Research based upon its own independent research and supporting information obtained from various sources. Although Lark Research believes these sources to be reliable, it has not independently confirmed their accuracy. Consequently, this blog post may contain errors and omissions. Furthermore, this blog post is a summary of a recent report published on this subject and that report provides a more complete discussion and assessment of the risks and opportunities of any investment securities discussed herein. No representation or warranty is expressed or implied by the publication of this blog post. This blog post is for informational purposes only and shall not be construed as investment advice that meets the specific needs of any investor. Investors should, in consultation with their financial advisers, determine the suitability of the post’s recommendations, if any, to their own specific circumstances. Lark Research is not registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission, pursuant to exemptions provided in the Investment Company Act of 1940. This blog post remains the property of Lark Research and may not be reproduced, copied or similarly disseminated, in whole or in part, without its prior written consent.
You must be logged in to post a comment.