Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG) reported 24Q3 operating revenues of $2.64 billion, up 7.6% from 23Q3. Diluted GAAP EPS was $1.03 vs. $0.27 last year. 24Q3 operating income rose 16%, but most of the gain vs. the prior year was due to positive swings in pension costs and gains on trust investments. Non-GAAP operating EPS was $0.90 vs. $0.85 in 23Q3 and below my estimate of $0.93.
Management reaffirmed and narrowed its full-year 2024 non-GAAP earnings guidance from $3.60-$3.70 to $3.64 to $3.68. It also reaffirmed its annual rate base growth target (to 2028) of 6%-7.5% and its non-GAAP EPS annual growth target of 5%-7%. PEG expects to spend $19.0-$22.5 billion under its 2024-2028 capital investment program, funded with internally generated cash and debt, without asset sales or new equity issuance. It will initiate 2025 non-GAAP EPS guidance and roll forward its five-year capital spending plan when it reports 24Q4 results in February.
Based upon 24Q3 results and updated guidance, I now project 2024 revenues of $10.4 billion, down 7.6% vs. 2023, mostly due to mark-to-market losses on derivatives, partially offset by price increases and more favorable weather conditions. I also project GAAP EPS of $3.90, up from $3.79 in my previous report, and non-GAAP EPS of $3.66, down a penny. For 2025, I project GAAP EPS of $4.36, up from $4.15, and non-GAAP EPS of $4.00, which is unchanged. My 2025 non-GAAP estimate implies earnings growth of 9.3%, above the company’s long-term 5%-7% guidance.
Since my last report (8/5), the stock is up 8.4%, less than the S&P 500’s 11.6%, but better than the DJUA’s 3.2%. It peaked at $92.28 in September and gave up ground in October before plunging 6.2% on Nov. 4 after reporting earnings. Consensus estimates anticipate 2025 non-GAAP EPS of $4.08, up 11.5% from the midpoint of 2024 guidance and well above the 5%-7% growth target. The optimism is due to recently awarded rate increases and higher expected 25H2 capacity payments for PSEG Power’s nuclear fleet from the recent capacity auction. Yet, in response to questions from analysts yesterday, management held firm to its 5%-7% guidance. With this year’s gains, the stock is valued at a premium to the peer group average. So when management towed the line on 5%-7% earnings growth, investors apparently worried that PEG’s premium valuation was too high. Even with yesterday’s decline (and today’s partial recovery), PEG trades at 22.7 times projected 2024 non-GAAP EPS, above the peer group average of 18.6.
Based upon the recent advance in PEG’s share price, I am raising my price target from $80 to $86, which equates to one year forward multiples of 19.7 times projected 2025 GAAP EPS of $4.36 and 21.5 times projected non-GAAP EPS of $4.00. The target price therefore implicitly assumes that PEG’s premium valuation will ease back to the peer group average over time. The $86 price target equates to a potential total return of 5.5% from the current price of $83.78, including the stock’s 2.9% dividend yield. Accordingly, I am maintaining my performance rating of “3” (Neutral).
This is a summary of my recent update report on Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG). To obtain a copy of the report, please reach out to me using the contact information provided below.
November 18, 2024 (Report published on November 5, 2024.)
Stephen P. Percoco
Lark Research
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© 2015-2024 by Stephen P. Percoco, Lark Research. All rights reserved.
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