Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG) reported 24Q1 operating revenues of $2.76 billion, down 26.5% from $3.76 billion in 23Q1. PSE&G’s operating revenues rose 1.7% to $2.33 billion. PSEG Power & Other’s net revenues, excluding sales to affiliates, decreased 70.8% $0.43 billion, due mostly to a decline in mark-to-market gains on derivative contracts. 24Q1 diluted GAAP EPS was $1.06 vs. $2.57 last year. Non-GAAP operating EPS was $1.31 vs. $1.39. 24Q1 Non-GAAP EPS was below my estimate of $1.34.
Management reaffirmed its full-year 2024 non-GAAP earnings guidance of $3.60-$3.70, its annual 6.0%-7.5% rate base growth target (to 2028) and its 5%-7% annualized non-GAAP EPS growth target. PSEG expects to spend $18.0-$21.0 billion under its capital investment program from 2024-2028. It plans to fund the program with internally generated cash and debt, without asset sales or new equity issuance.
My revised projections anticipate 2024 GAAP EPS of $3.62 and non-GAAP EPS of $3.67. For 2025, I now project GAAP EPS of $4.15 and non-GAAP of $4.00. The projected 9% increase in 2025 non-GAAP earnings is above the high end of PEG’s 5%-7% growth target. This reflects an expected settlement of PSE&G’s combined electric and gas distribution rate case later this year, which could raise PSE&G’s annual revenues by as much as 9%. PSEG is also awaiting a decision on its proposed $3.1 billion Clean Energy Future – Energy Efficiency II program, which would cover commitments from January 2025 through June 2027 (for investments to be made through 2030). The distribution rate case and CEF-EE II request should give us a good read on the NJBPU’s willingness to continue to approve these expanded capital investment programs.
Based upon projected 2025 EPS, I have raised my price target on PEG to $80 (from $65 set on 12/1/23). The price target implies a one-year forward valuation multiple of 20 applied to projected 2025 non-GAAP EPS of $4.00. At the current quote, that represents a potential 12-month total return of 11%, including the stock’s 3.2% dividend yield. Accordingly, I am raising my performance rating a notch to “2” (Outperform).
YTD, PEG’s stock has advanced 22%, better than the S&P 500’s 18% and the S&P 500 Utilities sector’s 10% rise. This year’s outperformance reverses its multi-year underperformance vs. the broader market. The stock has been flirting with overbought levels since May, but if it consolidates at or around the current level, it should clear the way for another advance to my $80 PT.
This is a summary of my recent update report on Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG). To obtain a copy of the full report, please reach out to me using the contact information provided below.
July 18, 2024 (Report published on July 15, 2024.)
Stephen P. Percoco
Lark Research
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© 2015-2024 by Stephen P. Percoco, Lark Research. All rights reserved.
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