Category Archives: Federal Reserve

The Employment Situation and Outlook – December 2020

Yesterday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics estimated that nonfarm payroll employment declined by 140,000 in December.  The estimate for November was increased by 135,000.  The level of employment for December was therefore virtually unchanged from the November report.

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The Fed Keeps Interest Rates on Hold

At the conclusion of its two-day meeting on July 26, the FOMC kept the Fed Funds target rate unchanged.  While this was expected by the financial markets, I thought that the FOMC might still actually raise the target rate.  At … Continue reading

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The Market’s Mistaken View on Fed Rate Hikes

The consensus view of the financial markets suggests that the FOMC will next raise its target Fed Funds rate in December (by a quarter point).  Currently, the target range is 1.00%-1.25%. Fed Funds futures currently suggest (as of July 13) … Continue reading

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Is the Federal Reserve Adding to Market Confusion?

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee has taken the relative small (and symbolically huge) step of raising the target Fed Funds rate by one-quarter point. But its decision-making process and communications to financial markets both before and after the move … Continue reading

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