BKR reported 24Q3 GAAP diluted EPS of $0.77 vs. 23Q3’s $0.51 and my estimate of $0.63. Non-GAAP EPS was $0.67, compared with $0.42 last year and my estimate of $0.65. Revenues of $6.9 billion rose 4.0% vs. 23Q3, but was 4.3% below my projections due to lower than expected services sales. Orders of $6.68 billion fell 21.6% YOY, against an especially tough prior year comparison. Adjusted EBITDA was $1.21 billion, up from $983 million in 23Q3, as adjusted EBITDA margin increased by 270 bp to 17.5%. Free cash flow (CFOA minus capex plus dispositions) was $754 million vs. $592 million in 23Q3.
The revenue shortfall and decline in services suggests that BKR’s growth momentum may be slowing. In response, management says that order activity is still solid and that the services component of its business dampens the impact of energy sector cyclicality. Yet, if growth is indeed slowing, it will probably be more difficult for the company to sustain the record adjusted EBITDA margin posted this quarter.
With one quarter left to go, management has lowered its full year revenue guidance slightly and narrowed its adjusted EBITDA margin range. It now expects revenues of $27.35-$27.85 billion, down 1.4% at the midpoints of the ranges and adjusted EBITDA of $4.45-$4.60 billion, trimming each end of the range by $0.05 billion. Based upon 24Q3 performance and guidance, I have raised my 2024 full year GAAP EPS by $0.15 to $2.48 and my non-GAAP EPS estimate by $0.04 to $2.36. My 2024 projections are in line with management’s guidance.
For 2025, I now expect GAAP EPS of $2.68, up $0.15, and non-GAAP EPS of $2.65, up $0.06. The projections incorporate expectations of slowing revenue growth and margin improvement.
At the current price of $37.00, BKR is valued at 14.7 times projected 2024 GAAP EPS and 15.7 times non-GAAP EPS. The stock continues to be priced at a meaningful premium to the peer group average (HAL, NOV and SLB) of 11.6 times projected 2024 non-GAAP earnings, already reflecting BKR’s mix of counter-cyclical businesses. I am therefore maintaining my $40 price target, which is 15 times projected GAAP and non-GAAP EPS. The price target represents a potential total return of 10.4%, including the stock’s 2.3% dividend yield. As a result, I continue to rate the stock “3” (Neutral).
This is a summary of my recent update report on Baker Hughes Company (BKR). To obtain a copy of the full report, please reach out to me using the contact information provided below.
October 27, 2024 (Report originally published on October 24, 2024.)
Stephen P. Percoco
Lark Research
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© 2015-2024 by Stephen P. Percoco, Lark Research. All rights reserved.
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