AT&T reported a 24Q3 GAAP loss of $0.03 per share, reversing last year’s $0.48 profit and falling short of my $0.56 estimate. The loss was entirely due to a $4.4 billion impairment charge taken against its Business Wireline segment. Non-GAAP EPS was $0.60, below last year’s $0.64, but a penny ahead of my $0.59 estimate. Revenues of $30.2 billion were down slightly from 23Q3’s $30.4 billion and lower than my estimate of $30.7 billion. Free cash flow was $3.1 billion in the quarter, a sliver below 23Q3’s $3.2 billion but more than twice my estimate of $1.3 billion.
Management reaffirmed its 2024 non-GAAP EPS guidance range of $2.15-$2.25 as well as all other guidance metrics. Based upon the gives and takes of the quarter, I have lowered my 2024 GAAP estimate from $1.96 to $1.43, but raised my non-GAAP EPS estimate from $2.18 to $2.24. My projections for the remaining metrics are mostly in line with guidance, including my full year free cash flow estimate of $17.5 billion.
On Sept. 30, AT&T announced that it had agreed to sell its remaining 70% stake in DIRECTV to TPG in a non-contingent transaction subject only to customary closing conditions. The company expects to report an additional $7.6 billion of cash payments in connection with the sale, mostly by the end of 2025.
I have incorporated the sale of the DIRECTV stake into my financial model. AT&T expects to continue to receive quarterly distributions from DIRECTV through 2025 and certain lump sum distributions and payments. It also expects to record a gain on the sale, but said that the tax implications of the sale are still uncertain.
My 2025 projections now anticipate GAAP EPS of $2.65, up from $2.19 previously, and non-GAAP EPS of $2.33, up from $2.30. The increase in GAAP earnings estimates reflects mostly the gain on the DIRECT stake sale plus modest net improvement in the businesses.
Since my last report (8/6), AT&T’s stock has delivered a total return of 17.3%, far exceeding the S&P 500’s 5.1% return. With that advance and the positive (though still somewhat uncertain) impact of the DIRECTV sale, I am raising my price target from $20 to $24. That implies a potential total return of 11.4%, including the 4.9% dividend yield and based upon assumed valuation multiples of 9.1 times projected 2025 GAAP earning of $2.65 and 10.3 times non-GAAP earnings of $2.33. Accordingly, I am maintaining my performance rating of “3” (Neutral) on AT&T’s stock.
This is a summary of my recent update report on AT&T, Inc. (T). To obtain a copy of the report, please reach out to me using the contact information provided below.
November 18, 2024 (Report published on November 1, 2024.)
Stephen P. Percoco
Lark Research
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