AT&T reported 24Q2 GAAP EPS of $0.49, below last year’s $0.62 and my estimate was $0.58. Non-GAAP EPS was $0.57, below last year’s $0.63 and my estimate of $0.62. Free cash flow was $4.6 billion in the quarter, above 23Q2’s $4.2 billion and my estimate of $3.6 billion.
Management reaffirmed its 2024 non-GAAP EPS guidance range of $2.15-$2.25. However, since the company has fallen short of my estimates for two consecutive quarters, I have lowered my 2024 GAAP estimate from $2.07 to $1.96 and my non-GAAP EPS estimate from $2.22 to $2.18. For 2025, I now expect GAAP EPS of $2.19, down from $2.26, and non-GAAP EPS of $2.30 vs. $2.40 previously.
Since my last report on May 1, the stock has continued to outperform the market, with a total return of 16.2%, better than the S&P 500’s 6.9%. Year to date, the stock has delivered a total return of 21.0%, above the S&P 500’s 13.0%. The stock has been in an uptrend since the mid-April market lows, similar to the broader market, and has continued to move higher, even as the broader market turned lower. However, Friday’s candlestick, with its long upper shadow, could signal a reversal of the uptrend.
Despite the lowering of my earnings estimates, I am raising my price target from $19 to $20. This is due to the mechanics of my price target formula: Although my 2025 earnings estimate is now lower, AT&T’s one year forward multiple is higher as a result of the stock’s recent outperformance. Accordingly, my price target equates to a forward multiple of 9.2 times (up from 8.4 times previously) projected 2025 GAAP EPS of $2.19 and 8.7 times, (up from 7.9 times) projected 2025 non-GAAP EPS of $2.30. The $20 price target represents a potential 12-month return of 9.0%, including the stock’s 5.7% dividend yield. Consequently, I am lowering my performance rating on AT&T’s stock from “1” (Buy) to “3” (Neutral).
The stock is cheap to the market, but its valuation is in line with Verizon (VZ). The market is worried that the earnings of the major integrated telecommunications carriers are not sustainable. (AT&T’s non-GAAP earnings are expected to decline in 2024 for the second consecutive year.) Sentiment about AT&T has improved since its 23Q1 earnings miss, but investors are concerned about a potential slowing of its main growth engines – wireless services and fiber broadband – along with ongoing declines in its legacy voice businesses. Barring a positive change in outlook, the stock’s primary attraction now is its dividend yield.
This is a summary of my recent report on AT&T, Inc. (T). To obtain a copy of the full report, please reach out to me using the contact information provided below.
August 7, 2024 (Report published on August 4, 2024.)
Stephen P. Percoco
Lark Research
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© 2015-2024 by Stephen P. Percoco, Lark Research. All rights reserved.
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